IJE TRANSACTIONS A: Basics Vol. 27, No. 10 (October 2014) 1537-1546   

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B. Amirataee, M. Montaseri and H. Rezaei
( Received: November 18, 2013 – Accepted: June 26, 2014 )

Abstract    One of the most important problems in time series analysis of stream flow and rainfall data in an area is selecting the best probability distribution. Since the rainfall stations are associated and correlated with each other, so statistical analysis of the station data seamlessly are very important. Therefore, the first step in data analysis, is selecting the prevailing probability distribution in the region. Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient (PPCC) method is one of the most simple, efficient, and pointed approaches in this field which is used for selecting the best probability distribution at each station. Among these, the method of L-Moments is also developed and has the capacity of regional analysis to choose the best probability distribution. In this study, we examine monthly and annual rainfall data for a period of 50 years with both PPCC and L-moments methods based on different evaluations, in the North West of Iran. Although, results from the two methods were almost identical, but because of the simplicity of calculations and the use of a curve to determine the best statistical distribution, the use of L-moments was recommended.


Keywords    Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient, L-Moments, Goodness of fit


چکیده    یکی از مسائل مهم در تحلیل سری­های زمانی جریان رودخانه و یا خشکسالی­ها در یک منطقه، انتخاب بهترین توزیع احتمالی می­باشد. از آنجائیکه ایستگاه­های بارندگی در ارتباط با یکدیگر بوده و همبستگی خوبی با هم دارند، لذا تجزیه و تحلیل آمار این ایستگاه­ها بصورت یکپارچه از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. بنابراین اولین گام در تحلیل دادها، انتخاب توزیع آماری غالب در یک منطقه می­باشد. روش ضریب همبستگی برازش احتمالاتی (PPCC) یکی از روش­های بسیار ساده، کارا و نقطه­ای در این زمینه می­باشد که برای انتخاب توزیع آماری برتر در هر ایستگاه بکار می­رود. در این میان، روش گشتاورهای خطی (L-Moments) نیز توسعه پیدا کرده که امکان تحلیل منطقه­ای جهت انتخاب بهترین توزیع آماری را دارد. در این مطالعه به ارزیابی دو روش PPCC و گشتاورهای خطی بر اساس معیارهای ارزیابی مختلف، در منطقه شمال غرب کشور برای داده­های ماهیانه و سالیانه بارندگی با طول دوره 50 ساله پرداخته شده است. هرچند نتایج بدست آمده از دو روش تقریباً یکسان بوده، ولی استفاده از روش گشتاورهای خطی به دلیل سادگی محاسبات و استفاده از یک منحنی جهت تعیین بهترین توزیع آماری، توصیه گردید.



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