Abstract    Safety risk study on road transportation of hazardous chemicals is a reliable basis for the government to formulate transportation planning and preparing emergent schemes, but also is an important reference for safety risk managers to carry out dangerous chemicals safety risk managers. Based on the analysis of the transport safety risk of dangerous chemicals at home and abroad, this paper studied four main factors influencing the safety risk of road transportation. In order to study the reliability of the whole road transport system and take into account the dynamic changes of the safety risk, this paper presents the dynamic fault tree and Bayesian network hybrid method to identify and evaluate the dynamic safety risk of the road transportation of dangerous chemicals. Finally, the feasibility of the model is verified by the case study of road transportation of liquefied natural gas in a real enterprise.

Keywords    Safety, Risk, Reliability, Dangerous Chemicals, Road, Transportation

چکیده    مواد شیمیایی خطرناک به طور گسترده در تولید و امکانات زندگی رخ می دهد. در طی فرایند حمل و نقل مواد شیمیایی خطرناک، زمانی که یک اتفاق رخ دهد، تلفات عمده و آسیب های ملکی و محیط اطراف جدی خواهد بود. بنابراین، تحقیق برای ایمنی حمل و نقل جاده ای مواد شیمیایی خطرناک کاملا ضروری است. مطالعات ایمنی حمل و نقل جاده ای مواد شیمیایی خطرناک یک اساس قابل اعتمادی برای دولت برای طراحی برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل و تهیه طرح های در حال ظهور است، اما مرجع مهمی برای مدیران ایمنی برای پیشبرد مدیریت ایمنی مواد شیمیایی خطرناک است. به منظور بررسی قابلیت اطمینان کل سیستم حمل و نقل جاده ای و توجه به تغییرات دینامیکی خطر ایمنی براساس تجزیه و تحلیل خطر ابتلا به مواد شیمیایی خطرناک حمل و نقل در داخل و خارج از کشور، در این مقاله چهار عامل اصلی تاثیرگذار بر ایمنی خطر حمل و نقل جاده ای و ارائه یک درخت گنگ پویا و روش ترکیبی شبکه Bayesian برای شناسایی و ارزیابی خطر ایمنی پویای حمل و نقل جاده ای مواد شیمیایی خطرناک ارائه شده است. در نهایت، امکان سنجی مدل توسط مطالعه موردی حمل و نقل جاده ای گاز طبیعی مایع در یک شرکت واقعی تایید شده است.

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